A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
